MO: Who should challenge Talent in '06?

With all the recent excellent diaries analyzing which PA Dem should take on Senator Man-on-Dog in '06, I thought I'd do a similar analysis of another vulnerable Republican-held Senate seat here in Missouri.

Jim Talent is beatable.  He got elected to the Senate under a highly unusual set of circumstances unlikely ever to be repeated again (details in the extended box). He's not particularly charismatic; he sort of gives off a bespectacled, college-professor vibe.  He hasn't done much of note in two years in the Senate (you can bet he'll get a plum appointment to try and change that).  He lacks Bond's gift for bringing home pork.  Most significantly, he's from the St. Louis metro area, which is a serious handicap if you're running statewide in Missouri.  Resentment outstate runs deep, and cuts across party lines. (It's not just cultural - rural voters are still upset about their tax dollars going to desegregate the St. Louis schools in the 70s, and the new Cardinals stadium won't help things.)

More, and thoughts on potential challengers, below the jump.

Talent is no Kit Bond.  The latter is a Missouri institution who developed a reputation for bringing home the pork over three terms in the Senate and got significant urban and Dem support in solidly beating Nancy Farmer; at this point, his seat is safe until he retires, unless he pulls a Bunning.  In contrast, Jim Talent was a little-known Congressman from affluent, suburban west St. Louis county who had never run a statewide race before he ran for Governor in 2000.  His ascension to the Senate was the result of the chain of events that began when Mel Carnahan's plane went down on Oct. 16, 2000.  When Carnahan posthumously defeated John Ashcroft, his widow, Jean Carnahan, was appointed to fill the seat pending a special election in 2002.  At the same time, Talent lost his race for Governor to Bob Holden by 20,000 votes (possibly buoyed by sympathy turnout for Carnahan).  This left Talent without a position, and Missouri with an extremely vulnerable, inexperienced Senator.  In the 2002 special election, Talent won by only 21,000 votes despite Carnahan running a lackluster campaign (I seriously question whether she really wanted to run).  

So ... who should take him on? Here's my short list:

1) Joe Maxwell (website)
Current position: Lt. Gov., 2000-present (lame duck).
Previous experience: State Rep, State Senator.
Pros: Proven statewide vote-getter, outperformed Al Gore by 100,000 votes in 2000.  Has the kind of bio that wins statewide in MO: rural roots (family was forced out of agriculture by the farm crisis in the 70s), military background (20 years in Nat'l Guard).  Chose not to run for re-election in 2004 to take care of his seriously-ill wife; voters (esp. women) will respect him for putting his family above his career.
Cons: Unclear if his wife's condition will allow him to run in 2006.  Was a low-key Lt. Gov, his name recognition isn't great.

2) Roger Wilson
Current position: Chair of Missouri Democratic Party.
Previous experience: Lt. Gov, 1992-2000; Governor for two and a half months after Mel Carnahan's death.
Pros: Another proven statewide vote-getter.  Comes from a political family with a colorful history (his grandfather was the sheriff of Boone County and was killed in a holdup in 1933).  High name recognition, mostly thanks to the brief stint as Gov (he was the one who appointed Jean Carnahan to the Senate seat).
Cons: Out of electoral politics since 2000.

3) Claire McCaskill (website)
Current position: State Auditor, 1998-present (re-elected in '02, term-limited out in '06).
Previous experience: Chief Prosecutor (DA equivalent) of Jackson County, which includes KC; before that a state legislator; unsuccessful candidate for Gov in 2004.
Pros: Ran a solid race under tough circumstances against Matt Blunt and might have won in an off year.  As it is, she outperformed Kerry by 40,000 votes.  Strong campaigner who does very well in person and in front of small groups.
Cons: Doesn't do as well in less intimate settings; she was unable to shake the widely-held perception of her as overly ambitious/cutthroat/a bitch during the campaign.  Alienated some of the Dem establishment by taking on Holden in the primary (this is where some of the "cutthroat" perception comes from).  Her positives are well known now but so are her negatives, and Blunt's campaign ads attacking her husband were very effective (he owns a bunch of nursing homes, and the campaign alleged she turned a blind eye to elder abuse as auditor).

4) Nancy Farmer (website)
Current position: State Treasurer, 2000-present (lame duck).
Previous experience: State rep, 1993-97; unsuccessful candidate for Senate (against Kit Bond) in 2004.
Pros: Interesting bio (working-class roots in rural Illinois).  Successful record as State Treasurer.
Cons: She may be irreparably tarnished as a candidate after the campaign against Bond.  While she was starved for funds from day one, her campaign was lackluster.  She was never able to get her name recognition up in the Dem areas, and when Bond predictably trashed her outstate as a St. Louis liberal she had no comeback.  Not the greatest campaigner; I was much more impressed with McCaskill and with Robin Carnahan (who won't be ready for prime time yet in '06).

5) Russ Carnahan
Current position: Congressman-elect, 3rd district (Gephardt's old district, covering south St. Louis city, south St. Louis county, Jefferson County and Ste. Genevieve County).
Previous experience: State rep, 2000-04 (representing south St. Louis city).
Pros: His last name, and his successful 2004 campaign.  Also, his district is trending increasingly conservative and he may want to jump ship before he loses to Bill Federer or is redistricted out of his seat.
Cons: Lousy, lousy campaigner.  Was practically handed MO-3 on a silver platter and managed to almost lose it twice; both Jeff Smith and Bill Federer significantly outperformed expectations and gave him a serious run for his money.  Campaign tactics alienated a lot of people - a postcard ad implying that two of his primary opponents were in bed together (complete with picture of rumpled bed) almost cost him the primary.  Has never run a statewide race, and it's unclear how much support he'd have outside the St. Louis area.

Other names: Gephardt is not going to run; he's retired, and it's unclear if he could win if he did (there's a good reason he never tried to run statewide).  Robin Carnahan is a gem, but she won't be ready by 2006.  I probably should put Jay Nixon on the list, but he had his shot in '98 against Kit Bond and ran a lousy campaign; I don't think he'd try again.

Update [2004-11-22 23:55:58 by Buck Fush]: I was wrong on one point: apparently the State Auditor's office is not term-limited. For now, McCaskill is saying that she intends to run for re-election.